Allen W. Smith, Ph.D.

The Empty Trust Fund
The Looting of Social Security
Allen W. Smith, Ph.D.
The Economy
CONTEMPLATIONS

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"A Voice Crying in the Wilderness"

Allen W. Smith has been a "voice crying in the wilderness" for more than three decades.  During that entire period, he has been battling economic illiteracy and government economic malpractice.  For the past decade, he has been screaming out the warning that, if the United States did not change course, the nation was heading toward the kind of economic calamity that finally struck in 2008.  Dr. Smith is the author of seven books, and he has appeared on CNN, CNNfn, CNBC, and more than 170 radio talk shows.  Allen shares his journey, as an advocate for economic education and sound economic policies, with readers in the final chapter of his latest book, "THE BIG LIE."   That chapter, which is entitled "A Voice Crying in the Wilderness," is reproduced immediately below his blog.

CONTACT ALLEN:  Phone: 1-800-840-6812     Email: ironwoodas@aol.com

Allen W. Smith is available for media interviews and speaking engagements.  Call 1-800-840-6812.

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Allen has converted his Honda Odyssey into the "Social Security Info-van" as he takes to the road in an effort to deliver his message directly to the public. 
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Allen's Blog 

"THE LOOTING OF SOCIAL SECURITY"

Email Address: ironwoodas@aol.com

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March 17, 2010

Social Security to Run $29 billion Deficit this Year

 

AP writer, Stephen Ohlemacher, sent shock waves throughout the nation this week with his story, “Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam’s IOUs.”  Social Security has been running large surpluses ever since the enactment of the 1983 payroll tax hike, and was projected to continue running surpluses until at least 2016.  Instead, Ohlemacher reports that the cost of Social Security benefits will exceed payroll tax revenue by approximately $29 billion this year, because of the severe recession which has reduced payroll tax revenue at the very time that many unemployed Americans have been forced to retire early.  

 

What it all boils down to is that, in order to pay full benefits this year, Social Security will have to come up with an extra $29 billion to supplement the inadequate payroll tax revenue.  Where will that money come from?  It will have to come from increased taxes or from borrowed money.  “Wait a minute!” some readers will say.  Hasn’t Social Security been receiving surplus revenue ever since the 1983 payroll tax hike?  Isn’t there supposed to be approximately $2.5 trillion in the Social Security trust fund?  The answer to both questions is yes.  But there is a problem.  Every dollar of that surplus Social Security revenue has already been spent by the government.  Much of it went to fund wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  The rest has been spent on other government programs.

 

The American people were not supposed to find out about the great Social Security scam for another six years, and the government was hoping to continue to receive surplus money from the Social Security contributions of working Americans for at least that long.  But the inevitable day of reckoning has come, six years sooner than anybody expected, because of the severe recession.  And the government of the United States has been caught with its hand still in the empty Social Security cookie jar.

 

For more than a decade, I have been trying to expose the Social Security scam just like Harry Markopolos  was trying to expose the Bernie Madoff scam.  But nobody would listen.  If anyone deserves credit for helping the government to keep its dirty secret for so long, that honor should go to the AARP and the NCPSSM.  I have been members of both organizations for years and I have tried very hard to get their cooperation in exposing the fraud.  But they have refused to have anything to do with me.  Instead, they have continued to bombard their members and the public with misinformation.  They have argued that the trust fund is full of “good-as-gold” U.S. Treasury Bonds that could be used to pay full Social Security benefits until at least 2037 without any changes.  In reaction to Olemacher’s AP story, Barbara Kennelly, president of the NCPSSM, responded with the following words, “Good luck to the politician who reneges on that debt.  Those bonds are protected by the full faith and credit of the United States of America.  They’re as solid as what we owe China and Japan.”

 

I believe Barbara Kennelly to be among the strongest and most honorable defenders of Social Security.  I think she truly wants to save Social Security, as we now know it, which is the same goal that has motivated me to make so much effort for more than a decade.  I have tried to convince Ms. Kennelly that I was trying to save Social Security by exposing the truth about the trust fund, but she wouldn’t even consider the possibility that the government has been looting the trust fund all these years.  I requested the opportunity to discuss this issue with her, either in a face-to-face meeting, or through telephone conversations, in the hope that we could work together toward a common goal.  She ignored my requests and refused to communicate with me in any way. 

 

It has been clear for quite some time that the trust fund contained no real assets.  David Walker, Comptroller General of the GAO, stated on January 21, 2005, “There are no stocks or bonds or real estate in the trust fund.  It has nothing of real value to draw down.”  On April 5, 2005, President George W. Bush finally acknowledged the empty trust fund by saying, “There is no trust fund, just IOUs that I saw firsthand that future generations will pay—will pay for either in higher taxes, or reduced benefits, or cuts to other critical government programs.” 

 

If there was any doubt remaining, with regard to whether or not the trust fund contains any real assets, that doubt should have been removed by the following words in the 2009 Social Security Trustees Report:

 “Neither the redemption of trust fund bonds, nor interest paid on those bonds, provides any new net income to the Treasury, which must finance redemptions and interest payments through some combination of increased taxation, reductions in other government spending, or additional borrowing from the public.” 

There is nothing ambiguous about the above words.  They make it clear that the government does not receive any cash income from the alleged interest payments on the trust fund IOUs.  The interest payments are made in the form of additional worthless IOUs.  The government cannot sell the IOUs because they are not marketable and have no cash value.  The IOUs simply represent a debt of one branch of the government (the Treasury Department) to another branch of government (Social Security).  They cancel each other out. 

 

The Social Security surplus revenue should have been saved and invested in public-issue, marketable Treasury bonds.  These bonds are “good as gold” and default-proof.  They are the kind of U.S. Treasury bonds that are owned by China and Japan, Bill Gates, pension funds, and every other serious investor that owns Treasuries.  If the Social Security surplus had been invested in public-issue marketable Treasury bonds, as it could have been, and should have been, Barbara Kennelly would be correct in saying that the Social Security holdings are “as solid as what we owe China and Japan.”  Unfortunately not a single dollar of the surplus Social Security revenue was saved or invested in anything.  It was all spent, and, once money is spent, there is nothing left to invest. 

 

The government cannot and will not ever default on any of its public issue, marketable Treasury bonds because of the panic it would create in world markets and the damage it would do to the nation’s worldwide credibility.  But Congress has the legal authority to default on its debt to Social Security, and, if it should do so, the outside world would probably view it primarily as an internal matter between the United States Government and its citizens. One of the least known facts about Social Security is that, although the government does have a moral obligation to pay Social Security benefits to those who have earned them, the government does not have a legal obligation to do so.  

 

In a 1960 ruling by the United States Supreme Court, the court ruled that nobody has a “contractual earned right“ to Social Security benefits.  Section 1104 of the 1935 Social Security Act specifically states, “The right to alter, amend, or repeal any provision of this Act is hereby reserved to the Congress.”  According to the above strong language, Congress could do whatever it wanted to do with regard to changing or even eliminating Social Security.  Early on, some did not take the language seriously because they thought it was probably unconstitutional.  However, in 1960, in the case of Fleming v. Nestor, the Supreme Court upheld the denial of benefits to Nestor, even though he had contributed to the program for 19 years and was already receiving benefits   In its ruling, the Supreme Court established the principle that entitlement to Social Security benefits “is not a contractual right.”    As a result of the 1960 Supreme Court ruling, the future of Social Security is totally in the hands of Congress and the President.  They have the legal authority to amend any and all parts of the Social Security Act, as well as the authority to either increase or decrease Social Security benefits.

    
10:44 pm edt 


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CHAPTER NINE

A Voice Crying in the Wilderness

 

            As stated in the preface, I appeared on CNN with Lou Waters to discuss my book, The Alleged Budget Surplus, Social Security, & Voodoo Economics on September 27, 2000.  When I tried to explain that there was really no significant budget surplus, except for the Social Security surplus, and told Waters that the government was using Social Security money for other programs, he looked at me in disbelief.

           “We’re not hearing any of this in the news,” Waters said.  “I’m involved in the news.  Are you a voice crying in the wilderness?  And if not, why haven’t we seen a presidential candidate, any presidential candidate, talk about this?” 

            I was a voice crying in the wilderness in September 2000, and I have continued to be such a voice ever since. I have tried my best to alert the American public to the ongoing raiding of the Social Security trust fund and the runaway budget deficits, but almost nobody wants to listen.      

            Actually, I have been a voice crying in the wilderness for more than three decades.  After completing my Ph.D. in Economics at Indiana University in 1970, I began teaching economics to college students at Eastern Illinois University.  That is when I first became aware of just how economically illiterate the American population is.  I saw it in my students, in the community, and even among my teaching colleagues in other academic fields. Basic economic principles, that one has to understand in order to make any sense out of the economic proposals being put forth by political leaders, were either poorly understood, or not understood at all, by anyone except trained economists.

            I saw this as a major failure of the American education system.  My children attended what was otherwise a very good high school in the University town.  But, to my astonishment, the local high school did not offer even an elective course in economics.  I was told that the primary reason they didn’t offer economics was that none of the teachers wanted to teach the subject because none of them had received any training in the field.

            Of course, the school taught chemistry, physics, calculus, astronomy, foreign languages, and just about every other course that one would expect to see offered by a high-quality high school.  The only gap in their curriculum that I was aware of was economics, a subject that would affect the lives and livelihoods of students almost more than any other subject that the school taught.   

            I was also disappointed in how few college students were required to take a course in economics.  Only certain majors required the study of economics.  Most students could become a college graduate without ever coming face to face with the subject of economics. Not only that, but most of my colleagues, in other departments, had been able to obtain a Ph.D. degree in their field without ever being exposed to economics. 

            I couldn’t understand why a course in economics was not a general education requirement that every college graduate would have to take.  How could we consider anyone well-educated who had no idea of what causes unemployment or inflation, and didn’t know the difference between a budget deficit and the national debt?

            It was in 1975, that I resolved to dedicate my career as an economist to the cause of reducing economic illiteracy and promoting economic education.  I began by writing the book, Understanding Inflation and Unemployment, which became an alternate selection of Fortune Book Club when it was published in 1976.  This was a time when the United States was experiencing a combination of both high unemployment and high inflation.  Historically, there had been a tradeoff relationship between inflation and unemployment such that a country usually did not have to deal with high levels of both at the same time.  My book represented an effort to explain the special circumstances that had led to the inflation-unemployment problems of the 1970s. 

            In 1986, Random House published my high school economics textbook, Understanding Economics, which was used in more than 600 schools nationwide.  I felt good about the contribution the book was making toward reducing economic illiteracy at the high school level but, of course, it couldn’t do any good in high schools that continued to refuse to offer their students the opportunity to study economics. 

            In 1996, the first edition of my book, Demystifying Economics: The Book That Makes Economics Accessible to Everyone, was published.  A second edition was published in 2000, and an expanded third edition was published in 2008.  That book is designed to make economics accessible to people who have never had any formal training in the subject, and I think it has been successful in that regard.  In the words of the Louisville Courier-Journal, “…Smith provides an easily understood layman’s approach to the perceived mysteries of economics.  The book has the potential to be a serious weapon in the battle against economic illiteracy…I believe that readers of Demystifying Economics will learn both what economics is and how it can contribute to their understanding of the world.”

  

            In 1990, I began writing a weekly self-syndicated newspaper column on the economy called, “Economic Alert.”  I felt that somebody had to do something to educate the public, so I began warning my readers about the disastrous economic path the nation was following.   

            My column, which appeared in 30 newspapers, soon became very controversial, and I got many hostile letters from Bush supporters. I was labeled a “Bush Basher,” and was called “un-American,” a “Marxist” and numerous other choice names.  Letters to the editor of newspapers that carried my column urged the newspapers to stop running the column, and some did.  I was amazed at the hostility that came my way simply because I was pointing out the flaws of Reaganomics and warning that a day of reckoning would eventually come if we didn’t change course.
      As the economic malpractice continued undeterred, I felt compelled to do more than just write about the problem.  I drafted a proposal for the creation of a National Economic Advisory Council that would serve as a watchdog for the American people to ensure that sound economic policies were followed.  I took the proposal to my congressman and urged him to introduce legislation for the creation of such a council.  I expressed a desire for him to communicate the proposal to Senator Daniel Moynihan to see if he might be interested in sponsoring such legislation in the Senate. 

Congressman Bruce talked about the proposal on the floor of the House, and it was inserted into the Congressional Record. A portion of page E2561 of the July 31, 1990 Congressional Record, which includes my proposal, is reproduced below. 

 
HON. TERRY L. BRUCE
OF ILLINOIS

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Tuesday July 31, 1990

        Mr. BRUCE:  Mr. Speaker, Dr. Allen Smith of Eastern Illinois University in Charleston, IL, has written an excellent column proposing a national economic advisory council.  I ask that it be put in the CONGRESSIONAL RECORD, and I urge my colleagues to give it careful consideration.  His message is something all of us should ponder. 
UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS No. 28
(By Allen Smith)
THE NEED FOR A NATIONAL
ECONOMIC ADVISORY COUNCIL
        In an effort to get the economy out of its current mess and prevent economic malpractice in the future, I propose the creation of a nonpartisan national economic advisory council made up of nine of the best economists in America.  The council members, who would serve nine-year staggered terms, would be appointed by the President and confirmed by Congress.
        Council members would be ineligible for reappointment so they could remain independent of partisan politics.  Since it is essential that council members have a strong grasp of basic economics, only professionally trained economists would be eligible to serve on the council.  The council would have only advisory powers, but it would be mandated by law to issue periodic public reports on the state of the economy and on economic policy.
          The purpose of such a council would be to serve as a watchdog for the American people to ensure that sound economic policies are followed.  Sound economic policy is Republican, Democratic, conservative, or liberal policy.  It is policy based on basic economic principles which are supported by the majority of professionally trained economists.  Like members of any other profession, economists disagree on certain aspects of economic policy, however there are many fundamental principles of economics upon which most economists agree.  It is some of these most basic fundamental principles that have been ignored in recent years.
              This proposal will be about as popular with most politicians as a bad toothache.  But if enough Americans supported such a proposal it could be enacted into law.  Since members of the council would be appointed, and ineligible for reappointment, they could put the interest of the economy and the American people ahead of any partisan political goals.  They would be free to openly disagree with the President and Congress, and they would be obligated to report economic malpractice to the public.
          Since the council would have only advisory powers, it could not prevent all economic malpractice or ensure sound economic policy at all times.  But, since it would be free to criticize government  economic policies without fear of reprisals, it would tend to force the government to pursue responsible economic policies.  It would also ensure that professional economists have advisory input into national economic policy.
            The actual structure and functioning of any such economic advisory council could differ substantially from my proposal.  The important thing is that the American people need a group of highly competent economists who are looking out for the public interests instead of the interests of partisan politicians.  Such a council would also benefit the many government officials who have had little or no formal training in the subject of economics. These officials cannot formulate sound economic policies without the advice of competent economists.
          Since members of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers are selected on the basis of their compatibility with the President’s political goals, they serve the political interests of the President which are not always compatible with sound economic policies.   The American people need a council of nonpartisan competent professional economists who are mandated by law to promote economic policies that will best serve the long-term interests of the American economy and the American people.
          I have already met privately with a member of the U.S. Congress to discuss the feasibility of creating such a council.  He is testing reaction to the proposal in Washington, and he may draft a bill proposing legislation that would create such a council.  Enacting such legislation will require massive support from the general public.  Politicians will not take the initiative in creating a council that would serve as a watchdog for the American people to ensure that politicians put the interests of the American economy above their own political interests.  Such legislation will be possible only if the American people demand it.   If you support the creation of a nonpartisan national economic advisory council, please send copies of this column, along with your letters of support, to your elected representatives in Washington.  We must do more than talk about the need for sound economic policies.  We must take action to ensure that they become a reality.  Our future, and the future of our children and grandchildren is at stake.
     

            I am even more convinced today than I was in 1990 that the American people need some kind of independent council of competent economists to monitor economic policies and blow the whistle on politicians who put personal political interests above the interests of the economy and the American people.  The specific provisions of the proposal could be altered in various ways and still serve the same purpose.  The important thing is to have competent economists monitoring economic policies and reporting economic malpractice to the public at large.    If such a council had existed during the past decade, I don’t believe there would have been a financial meltdown.                               

             I began doing research on the federal budget in late 1999.  That research led to the publication of my book, The Alleged Budget Surplus, Social Security, and Voodoo Economics, in 2000.  It was while doing research for this book that I made an unexpected, and very troubling, discovery.  I discovered the ongoing fraudulent government practice of spending the Social Security surplus revenue on other government programs.  At first, I couldn’t believe my findings.  The elected officials of the United States government surely would not spend the Social Security contributions of American workers on other government programs without either the knowledge or permission of those workers.  But, the more I researched the subject, the clearer it became that the government had done, and was continuing to do, exactly that. 

            I was outraged, and I wanted to tell the whole world so they would be outraged too.  But nobody wanted to listen.  It just didn’t seem credible that our own government, both Democrats and Republicans, would engage in such fraud against the American people.

             As part of my efforts to alert the public, I began sending material to candidate Al Gore in early 2000. I sent him advance copies of my book, research findings, and several letters.  I urged Gore to put distance between himself and Clinton on Social Security and take a stand against the continued use of Social Security money for non-Social Security purposes.  I used multiple channels of commun-ication in sending the material to Gore in order to be sure that at least some of it got to him. 

            I cannot be sure that I was the source of Gore’s idea to propose the Social Security lockbox, and to make the raiding of the trust fund a major campaign issue.  However, the important point is that Gore did take a stand against the continued raiding of the trust fund, which resulted in George W. Bush taking a similar stand.  Thus, during the 2000 campaign, both Gore and Bush entered into a new covenant with the American people on how Social Security revenue would be treated in the future.  They both acknowledged that the trust fund had been raided in the past and pledged to end the raiding. 

            With both candidates making such a pledge, it appeared that no matter who won the 2000 election, the days of using Social Security money for non-Social Security purposes were over.  But that was not the case.  We will never know whether or not Al Gore would have honored his promise to protect Social Security if he had become president.  But we do know that George W. Bush did not honor his promise.  He continued to raid the Social Security trust fund just like his father, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton had been doing for years.  

 

            I tried very hard to get the Social Security fraud recognized and reported by the media, but my success was very limited.  I had the good fortune of being one of two guests to appear on CNBC on February 26, 2004, the morning after Greenspan’s first assault on Social Security was launched.  And I used the opportunity to say, “Alan Greenspan should be ashamed of himself for what he is not telling the American people!”  I also had the opportunity to discuss my views on CNNfn and more than 150 live radio talk shows, but still the public would not buy the notion that Bush was spending the Social Security surplus. 

            The media and the public just would not even entertain the notion that what I was saying could possibly be true.  Trying to convince them that Bush was spending every dollar of the Social Security surplus, in violation of both federal law and his promise to the American people, was like trying to convince them that I had taken a ride in a UFO.  My suggestions were just rejected out of hand, and no major newspaper would even consider publishing the numerous op-ed articles I submitted. 

            Once George W. Bush was inaugurated, it became clear that he planned to abandon the economic policies of Bill Clinton and return the nation to the policies of his father and Ronald Reagan, the same policies that had already inflicted so much damage on America.  It was unthinkable that the American people would allow this to happen. 

            Although my efforts, and the efforts of many other economists, to alert the public to the dangers of Reaganomics, had failed repeatedly to have any impact, I felt that I had to try to abort another round of Reaganomics.  After all, Bush could not make radical changes without the support of the United States Congress.  So I decided to try to make my case to the United States Senate. 

            On February 12, 2001, less than a month into the George W. Bush presidency, I mailed a package, via Priority Mail, to each and every one of the 100 United States Senators.  The package included a copy of my book, “The Alleged Budget Surplus, Social Security, and Voodoo Economics,” a video of my CNN interview with Lou Waters, and a very long letter.  In the letter, I pleaded with the senators to block Bush’s new program.  Below is a copy of the letter I sent to Democratic senators.  I also sent a similar letter to all Republican senators. 

 

February 12, 2001 
The Honorable Chris Dodd
448 Russell Senate Office Building
The United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510
            
Dear Senator Dodd,
       
         I am alarmed by the possibility that this nation could return to another round of Reaganomics, with all the adverse consequences we suffered the first time around, by enacting President Bush’s proposed massive tax cut.
        I have been battling economic illiteracy in America ever since my first book, Understanding Inflation and Unemployment was published in 1976.  Today, five books and 25 years later, economic illiteracy is a greater threat to us than ever before.  I published two new books last year—Demystifying Economics in April, and The Alleged Budget Surplus, Social Security, & Voodoo Economics in September—and I have been doing everything in my power to wake up the public to the danger that economic illiteracy poses for America…
      …I have been following the economy and the federal budget closely for the past 25 years, and I wrote a syndicated newspaper column on the economy during the early 1990s.  I watched in disbelief when the Congress enacted the Reagan economic proposals, knowing that there was almost an absolute certainty that they would lead to gigantic deficits, skyrocketing growth in the national debt, and severe damage to the U.S. economy, as they did.  I am both alarmed and dumbfounded that the nation is about to follow another economically illiterate president down the same road, and I want to do everything in my power to prevent this from happening.
        I believe that the Democratic party is missing a golden opportunity to educate voters on the terrible results of Reaganomics, and portray themselves as the “guardians of the American economy” by opposing President Bush’s irresponsible and reckless economic proposals.  I have not heard anyone even mention the catastrophic effect of Reaganomics on working Americans in terms of massive layoffs and record unemployment rates…
         …I would strongly urge the Democratic Party to put forth an alternative economic package that includes tax cuts that make economic sense.  A moderate, short-term tax cut could serve as a stimulant to consumer spending and thus prevent the economy from going into a deep recession.  I would suggest a one-time tax rebate to every American taxpayer of…
      I am enclosing a copy of the video of my eight-minute interview with Lou Waters on CNN and a copy of my 128-page book, The Alleged Budget Surplus, Social Security, and Voodoo Economics.  Please take the time to view this short interview and read this very short book.  I had no plans to write the book until all candidates for the presidency, from both parties, began talking about the nonexistent “budget surplus” during the presidential primaries.  I felt it my duty to write the book, and I feel it is my duty to do everything I can to prevent another round of Reaganomics.  I would like to have the opportunity to testify before Congressional committees and do anything else that I can do for the cause of economic literacy.
       
Sincerely,
          
         
Allen W. Smith, Ph.D. 
                   
P.S.  America very much needs your help and that of your colleagues in alerting the public to the fact that they have been deceived into believing there is a budget surplus when, in fact, the government’s long-term finances are the worst they have ever been…Your staff can verify every statistic in my book with a couple of hours of research.  During my interview with Lou Waters on CNN, he asked me if I was a voice crying in the wilderness.  So far, that is pretty much the case.  I feel like a modern-day Paul Revere trying to warn my fellow Americans of a forthcoming assault on the U.S. Treasury and the American economy, but because of such widespread economic illiteracy at all levels, almost nobody is hearing the warning.  Please check out the economic facts.     

           

            I was really pumping adrenaline during that project, and, as I took all those Priority Mail packages to the post office so they could start their journey to Washington, I may have fancied myself as someone like the little Dutch boy who supposedly stuck his thumb in the hole in the dike to prevent a catastrophe.      

            I felt good about the effort I had made, and I hoped that at least a few senators would read the book and give some thought to my warnings.  I knew that I would not hear from many of the senators, but, as the days and weeks passed by without a single reply, I began to feel depressed and a little hopeless.  I guess I just wasn’t prepared to accept the reality that any professional, in any field, could write 100 letters to United States senators, expressing grave concern about the nation’s future, and give away 100 books and videos of a CNN interview on the subject, and still not hear a word from even one senator.

            I became discouraged and was considering giving up my crusade in the summer of 2001 when I had an epiphany of sorts while standing in a long line at the post office.  I got this crazy idea that maybe if I plastered my 1991 red Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme car with large signs, warning of impending danger, and drove from city to city, I might get some news coverage for my message.  It was totally contrary to my personality and judgment to resort to publicity stunts in a desperate attempt to call attention to myself and my message.  But I did it anyway. 

            I placed signs, warning about budget deficits and Social Security, all over the car.  I even attached signs with very large letters to the top of the car in the hope that news organizations with helicopters might come down for a closer look.  I then began driving my “debtmobile” throughout the state of Florida.  I drove up and down the streets of Miami, Tampa, Tallahassee and other cities. 

             I was even considering driving the “debtmobile” from Florida to Washington D.C. if early publicity results indicated that such a venture was warranted, but they did not.  I got some publicity, but not nearly as much as I had hoped for.  The most significant news coverage was in the form of an Associated Press story in early September.  Below is a reprint of the AP story.

                     

ECONOMIST WARNED OF BUDGET SURPLUS
MYTH, NOW VINDICATED
By Vickie Chachere, Associated Press
(Reprinted with permission of The Associated Press) 
TAMPA—A year ago, economist Allen W. Smith seemed an oddity, a bespectacled Chicken Little with an ominous warning that the nation’s economic outlook wasn’t as good as it seemed.      
  He wrote a book about what he believes is a myth of a federal budget surplus.  He even went on CNN to spread his warnings there was no surplus, only a looming national debt.
  Still no one seemed to be listening .  Smith, a former writer of an economics column and the author of nine books, pressed on.
  The election—with its candidates making big promises about how they would use the surplus—came and went, and Smith grew frustrated.
  Finally, two months ago, Smith a Midwesterner not prone to absurd acts, felt moved to plaster signs on his bright red car and drive about town in and elaborate “The End is Near” sort of warning. 
  Smith’s grown children were embarrassed.  Some of his neighbors called him a loon. 
  Then this week came vindication with news the government needs to borrow $9 billion from Social Security reserves to make ends meet, says a new Congressional Budget Office estimate. 
  “I knew this would happen,” said Smith, 63, trying hard not to gloat.
  “(CNN’s) Lou Waters said I was a voice crying in the wilderness, I guess I was.  I knew it was just a matter of time.”
     If it wasn’t such a serious issue, it might almost be comical, but for Smith, a professor emeritus at Eastern Illinois University who has long been on a crusade to educate the common folk about the weighty issues of economics, it’s more proof that what Americans don’t know about economics hurts them.
     “It’s a deception they (voters) like to hear,” he said.  “The problem is the economic illiteracy.” 
      For Smith, the lack of understanding about budget surpluses and deficits is a double concern. 
      Not only does he feel politicians have been misleading people about how such surpluses could be spent on improved health care or education, he worries that people are making poor choices for themselves based on misinformation.  He fears a deep, prolonged economic recession is ahead. 
      I actually have a very gloomy outlook,” Smith said.  “I’m glad I’m retired and not out in the job market.”
      Smith’s book, The Alleged Budget Surplus, Social Security & Voodoo Economics, calls the budget surplus a myth that “may go down in history as the greatest deception perpetrated on the American people.”
      In the book, written in early spring last year, Smith argued that the economy was healthy, but the federal budget was not.
      The bulk of the budget surplus was Social Security Trust Fund money and it wasn’t the government’s to spend on programs other than paying benefits to those who have paid into the retirement program, he wrote.  The book was published in late September.
      Using data gleaned from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and other government economic reports, Smith argues in his book that the public was duped into believing there was a surplus and is forgetting $5.7 trillion national debt.
       He said the only surpluses were in 1999 and 2000, in the peak of the economic boom, and they were smaller than the public was led to believe, Smith contends.
       Smith took to task both Republicans and Democrats in the book, calling their comments about the economy and their campaign promises simply irresponsible.
       He does, however, think the recent tax rebates are a good idea for a short-term boost for the economy, if they’re spent as President Bush intends.
       Frustrated by the lack of interest in the issue, Smith said he was ready to give up earlier this summer when he had an epiphany while standing in line at a post office.
       Soon thereafter, his cherry red 1991 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme was transformed into the debt mobile.  Smith plastered the car with signs warning of the $1 billion-a-day interest and the mythical surplus and began traveling the state…
 

            Vickie Chachere, the AP correspondent who wrote the above story, told me that she thought it would be picked up by newspapers around the country.  My hopes began to build that my efforts would soon pay off as the budget surplus myth, which Bush was still playing to the hilt, was exposed.  I thought it was just a matter of time until the media and the American public would learn that they were being deliberately deceived by their government.  

            I spoke with Vickie by phone just before the story was to be released to the wires, and I said something like, “I hope there are no major stories that dominate the news and crowd out the other stories.”  Vickie said she thought things would be relatively quiet and that I needn’t worry about the story not receiving wide exposure. 

            The story appeared on the Florida wire and was about to go national.  But, like so many other stories, it was buried by the avalanche of news generated by the events of September 11.  To my knowledge, the story never made it to the national wire. 

            After the terrorist attacks, with the nation at war, support for President Bush surged, and nobody bothered to follow up on Bush’s pledge that he would not raid the Social Security trust fund.  And, even if he were raiding it in order to pay for the war, most Americans would probably not have had a problem with that. American’s have always been willing to make sacrifices during times of war.

            But Bush began raiding the trust fund even before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.  Fiscal year 2001 ended on September 30, just 19 days after the September 11 attacks, so there was not enough time for any effects to be reflected in that year’s budget.  Thus, the Social Security lockbox was broken into even before we knew we would be spending a lot of money on war.

            Furthermore, in early 2003, at a time when the previous year’s non-Social Security deficit had been a whopping $317.5 billion, and every dollar of the Social Security surplus was being spent on general government, Bush called for a second round of tax cuts.  Despite a public outcry of protest by economists, Bush pushed through a $330 billion new tax cut in May 2003. 

            It was extremely frustrating for me to watch Bush spend the Social Security surplus that resulted from contributions of American workers, some of them very poor, and at the same time push through tax cuts for some of the wealthiest Americans.  In essence, he was using the Social Security surpluses to fund his tax cuts for the rich.

            I continued to try to get this information to the media, but it seemed that, in the minds of most journalists, the trust fund issue had been resolved during the 2000 presidential election campaign.  Both Al Gore and George W. Bush had acknowledged at that time that the trust fund had been raided in the past, but both pledged that if elected president they would end the practice.  The fact that Bush pledged to protect the Social Security trust fund during speeches, both before and after, becoming president, seemed sufficient to end the public debate. 

            But Bush did not keep his promise.  He raided the trust fund in each and every year of his presidency.  In total, President George W. Bush spent $1.37 trillion of Social Security surplus revenue during his eight years as president.  In his last year, he spent $192.2 billion, which averages out to more than $526 million per day!

            As I continued to try to raise public awareness to the Social Security fraud, I kept hoping that some high-ranking public official would confirm that what I was saying was true.  In order to believe my assertion that the Social Security trust fund was empty, the public had to hear it from somebody with clout.

            On January 21, 2005, David Walker, the Comptroller General of the Government Accountability Office (GAO), gave a speech in Washington in which he said,

 “The left hand owes the right hand, and that has legal, political and moral significance.  But it doesn’t have any economic significance whatsoever.  There are no stocks or bonds or real estate in the trust fund.  It has nothing of real value to draw down.”   

            I thought a public statement by the Comptroller General of the GAO, saying the trust fund holds no bonds and has nothing of real value to draw down, was just what I needed.  But, to my amazement, the statement received very little news coverage.  If I hadn’t read about Walker’s statement in the San Francisco Chronicle, I might have never known about it, because I didn’t see it anywhere else.  

            On April 5, 2005, President George W. Bush made the following statement during a speech at West Virginia University at Parkerburg:

 “There is no trust fund, just IOUs that I saw firsthand that future generations will pay—will pay for either in higher taxes, or reduced benefits, or cuts to other critical government programs.” 

                Once Bush began to repeatedly admit that the government had spent all the Social Security money that was supposed to be in the trust fund, I thought the truth was out for all to see.  But even President Bush’s repeated public statements that the Social Security trust fund was empty didn’t receive much news coverage despite the fact that what he was saying was just the opposite of what he had said earlier.   

            In his first State of the Union address, delivered on February 27, 2001, President Bush had said,

 “To make sure the retirement savings of America’s seniors are not diverted in any other program, my budget protects all $2.6 trillion of the Social Security surplus for Social Security, and for Social Security alone.” 

                The very next day, the Office of Management and Budget had released the following statement,

 “None of the Social Security trust funds and Medicare trust funds will be used to fund other spending initiatives or tax relief.”  

            These statements, and several others made by Bush early in his presidency, are totally contradictory to his contention in 2005 that the trust fund contained nothing but IOUs.  At first, I thought that my efforts to convince the public that the government was spending the Social Security surplus money just as if it were general revenue, and that the trust fund was empty, were no longer needed.  The President of the United States had just done my job for me.  But it didn’t work out that way.  Nobody seemed to take Bush seriously once he began to actually tell the truth about Social Security.  The public still seemed convinced that all the surplus money that had been paid into the Social Security trust fund was safe and sound.

             I began to feel much like Australian physician, Dr. Barry Marshall,  must have felt for more than a decade.  In the early 1980s, Dr. Marshall discovered a link between a certain bacteria and peptic ulcers.  His early research led him to believe that ulcers were caused by this bacteria, and that patients with this bacteria were also at significant risk for developing stomach cancer.  If his belief that peptic ulcers were caused by bacteria was correct, this meant that ulcers might be cured with antibiotics.
              However, since medical students had been taught for decades that ulcers were caused by excess stomach acid, and because treatment of stomach acid had become a big industry, there was much organized resistance to Dr. Marshall’s findings.  He was ridiculed by fellow professionals and by pharmaceutical companies.  Among other things, he was called a “crazy man saying crazy things.”  In 1998, by which time his treatment for ulcers had become almost universally accepted, he was quoted as saying “Everyone was against me, but I knew I was right.”    During the decade it took for the medical profession to accept Dr. Barry Marshall’s findings, many patients throughout the world suffered needlessly, and some even died, from an ailment for which a cure had been found.
             Another example of the preventable suffering of thousands of people resulted from the now infamous Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme.  Madoff, a former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market, and a widely respected Wall Street trader, was arrested by federal agents after admitting that he had swindled clients out of approximately $50 billion. Over a period of many years, Madoff had ripped off investors from around the world including many large charitable organizations.
              It was only after Madoff’s arrest that the public learned that a man named Harry Markopolos had been trying to expose Madoff’s fraud for nine years.  Markopolos, with the help of a mathematician, concluded in 1999 that Madoff’s operation could not be legitimate.  Using data that Madoff’s firm distributed to prospective investors, Markopolos and the mathematician concluded within hours that it was impossible for Madoff to get the returns he reported while using the strategy he said he used.  Markopolos informed the SEC’s Boston office in May 1999 that it was impossible for the kind of profit Madoff was reporting to have been gained legally.  But the SEC was not interested in Markopolos’s theory.  Madoff continued to thrive, and Markopolos continued to pursue the case.
              In 2005, Markopolos submitted a report to the SEC saying it was “highly likely” that Madoff securities is the world’s largest Ponzi scheme.” But the report was not taken seriously.
             Markopolos continued to pursue the case for a total of nine years up until the time Madoff was arrested.  Had the SEC listened to Markopolos in 1999, thousands of individuals and organizations would have avoided being swindled out of billions of dollars.
             Coincidentally, nine years is how long I have been persistently trying to alert the public to the Social Security fraud.  During the nine years since I first began trying to alert the public to the fact that all surplus Social Security revenue is being fraudulently spent on other government programs, more than $1.37 trillion has been looted and spent.  That money, which belonged to the Social Security trust fund, and to American workers who had made Social Security contributions through the payroll tax, is gone, and the government continues to loot and spend more than $500 million of additional Social Security money each and every day.
              Why has it been so difficult to alert the public to the fact that the Social Security trust fund contains no real assets?  Why is it so hard for the public to accept the fact that the government has looted the trust fund of every penny of the surplus Social Security tax revenue and spent the money on other things?
              I think that part of the problem is the fact that conservative organizations, such as the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation, have been trying for decades to destroy the current Social Security system and replace it with a private system.  As we saw in Chapter Five, the Bush privatization campaign was based on the strategy set forth in 1983 by this movement.
            The strategy of the privatizers is to convince the public that the current Social Security system is unsustainable in the long run and that it should be replaced with a system of private accounts.  Among the many arguments of this group has been that the Social Security trust fund contains no real assets—only IOUs.  Therefore, when anyone suggests that the trust fund is empty, the ardent defenders of the current system automatically assume that the critic is a privatizer who is trying to destroy the current Social Security system.
             I am not such a person.  I am strongly opposed to any attempt to privatize Social Security.  What I have been trying to do is to save the current Social Security system by exposing the fraudulent raiding of the trust fund by the government.
              I believe that Social Security is the most successful and most popular program ever created by the United States government.  It has lifted millions of Americans out of poverty and made their final years tolerable, if not golden.  Social Security has worked well for the past 70 years, and it can work well for the next 70 years and beyond, if it is put on, and kept on, a solid foundation.  Those people who dislike Social Security do so for ideological and political reasons—not because the program is unworkable or unsustainable.
              There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the current structure of the Social Security program.  The short-term funding problems with Social Security are the result of the government’s “borrowing” and spending the Social Security surplus funds for more than two decades.  Despite the claims and counter claims of various groups and individuals, President Bush was correct when he said there are no real assets in the trust fund. He was also correct when he said that, beginning in 2017, when Social Security begins to run annual deficits, it will not be able to pay full benefits unless the government raises taxes, borrows additional amounts from the public, or cuts government spending.
              As we saw in Chapter 3, the main point of confusion on this whole matter seems to be that most people don’t understand that public issue, marketable Treasury bonds are something very different from the non-marketable special issue government IOUs that are held by the Social Security trust fund.
              The key to understanding what is going on is to keep your eye on the money.  If the government bought public- issue bonds in the open market, the money would go to the party selling the bonds, and none of it would be available for the government to spend.  This would be a true investment.  However, the special issue certificates allow the government to keep and spend all the money.  Since the money is all spent, there is nothing left to invest. But the government has met the letter of the law by printing up a certificate that says “backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.”
            In addition to the role that conservative organizations have played in blocking my message, the 35-million-member AARP has made my task of informing the public about the Social Security fraud much more difficult.  They have continued to insist that the Social Security trust fund holds bonds that are just like the ones held by private pension funds, insurance companies and most other investors, “because they are the safest investment in the world.” 
            I don’t know whether the AARP leadership is so naïve that they actually believe what they are saying, or whether they have other motives for helping to hide the Social Security fraud from the public.  What I do know is that they have rejected my extensive efforts to get them involved in helping to alert the public about the fact that the Social Security surplus money has all been spent and there are no real assets in the trust fund. Even though I was a member of the AARP for many years, the leadership seemed to view me and my message as a threat to their agenda.  I am not sure why.
            On July 18, 2004 the St. Petersburg Times published an article entitled “Social Security Assessments Clash” written by personal finance editor, Helen Huntley.  Ms. Huntley had submitted four questions on Social Security to both AARP Chief Executive, William Novelli and to me.  The first question was about the trust fund.  That portion of the article is presented below as it appeared in the Times.
   
Q:  Is the Social Security trust fund a fraud? Smith:  The concept of the Social Security trust fund is not a fraud, but the looting of the fund by the government is, in my opinion, the greatest fraud ever perpetrated on the American people by their government.
            Prior to 1983, Social Security operated on a pay-as-you-go principle with an approximately balanced budget most years.  However, in 1982 a presidential commission headed by Alan Greenspan was given the task of studying the long-term solvency of the program and making recommendations for the future.  The commission concluded that the only way Social Security would be able to fund the retirement of the baby boom generation, beginning in about 2010, would be to raise taxes and build up a reserve in advance of retirement.  In 1983 Congress passed, and the president signed, the legislation recommended by the Greenspan commission.  Taxes were raised and the money was supposed to be specifically earmarked for the funding of the baby boomers’ retirement.  Approximately $1.5 trillion of Social Security revenue has been generated by the tax increase so far and should be available when the baby boomers retire.
            Here is where the fraud begins.  Every dollar of that surplus has been borrowed, embezzled, stolen by the government and used for other spending programs and to finance tax cuts.  The money from the trust fund has been replaced with essentially worthless government IOUs that are not marketable and cannot be used to pay benefits.
Novelli:  Absolutely not!  Social Security has always had a trust fund in which all revenues (tax receipts and interest) to pay Social Security benefits are deposited and from which all benefits are paid.  The law requires that any surplus revenues not immediately needed to pay benefits have to be invested in U.S. Treasury bonds.  Currently, the Social Security trust fund holds more than $1.5 trillion of Treasury bonds that earn interest.  These bonds are like the ones bought by private pension funds, insurance companies and individuals because they are the safest investment in the world.
            Some people claim that the Treasury bonds owned by Social Security are worthless IOUs and that the Social Security trust fund is in trouble.  But they are wrong.  Investors worldwide know that the U.S. government has always paid every penny of interest and principal on Treasury bonds when they are due and will continue to do so.  Just as Social Security has never missed a single monthly benefit payment, Treasury bonds have always been paid in full and on time.             © Copyright 2004 St. Petersburg Times.  All rights reserved 
                             
             When Novelli said, “These bonds are like the ones bought by private pension funds, insurance companies and individuals because they are the safest investment in the world,” he was totally wrong.  Novelli appeared to be talking about public-issue Treasury bonds which are probably the safest investment in the world.  These are the type of bonds that the Social Security surplus should have been invested in because they are good-as-gold, default-proof, securities.
              Unfortunately, not a single dollar of the Social Security surplus is invested in public-issue Treasury bonds.  The special-issue IOUs that the trust fund holds were created specifically for the trust funds, and they are held only by the trust funds.
              Private pension funds and other investors could not invest in the special-issue IOUs, even if they wanted to.  However, no outside investor would touch these IOU’s with a ten-foot pole because they are worthless.
             As I have stated many times in this book, the Social Security surplus funds were not invested in anything.  All of the money was spent by the government on other programs, so there was nothing left to invest.  What the Treasury does when it spends Social Security money on other programs is to create IOU’s to serve as accounting records of the money “borrowed” from Social Security.
             Prior to 1994, the IOUs consisted only of accounting entries recorded in government ledgers or stored on computers.  However, some members of Congress began to worry that someone might want to actually see the IOUs, so legislation was passed that required the physical printing of documents to serve as certificates of indebtedness, in addition to the accounting entry.  Today, when a new IOU is issued, it is printed on a laser printer located at the Bureau of the Public Debt office in Parkersburg, West Virginia.  Once printed, the document is carried across the room and placed in a fireproof filing cabinet.  That filing cabinet is the closest thing to the mythical Social Security trust fund that exists.